Having spent the past two weeks attempting to come to terms with the UK Brexit decision, and wondering how the British people scored the greatest own goal since Suez, it is now important that we start to prepare for the long process of Britain’s withdrawal negotiations, and associated negotiation of a new trading relationship with Europe and the rest of the word.

As has been well articulated in the media, the UK must trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in order to formally commence the leave process. The process involves the British Government formally informing the Secretary General of the European Council that the UK wishes to leave. Once Article 50 is triggered, the UK will have a period of two years during which to negotiate their exit, and the new relationship with Europe. That two-year period can be extended, but only with the unanimous agreement of the entire European Council of 27 remaining heads of state. Whilst it is possible that the two years could expire with an incomplete negotiation, it is likely that amid fears of crises etc., the Council will/would agree an extension.

As part of that negotiation process, the remaining 27 member states need to agree on a negotiating mandate, to give to their official negotiators (most likely the Commission). It will be difficult for the Member States to decide on that Mandate until it is known what outcome the UK is actually seeking. Currently, given the political vacuum in the UK, and the lack of decisive leadership, we are depending on media speculation.

When the Irish authorities are examining their priorities with respect to Agriculture and Food, the following issues come to the fore:

1. Trade issues including Tariffs and Tariff differentials, and Trade arrangements with 3^rd countries. Included in the EU’s trade arrangements with 3^rd countries are some legacy issues which relate to the UK’s relationships with former colonies pre-1973. These relationships resulted in access to the EU market for butter and sheep meat from Australia and New Zealand, and for Sugar from the ACP (African, Caribbean, and Pacific) Countries. Where will those quotas reside post Brexit?
2. Customs Controls, Certification, Administration Documents. Currently, with the single market, there is free movement of goods, with minimum veterinary or plant health certification.
3. EU Standards. There is no reason to assume that the UK will dramatically deviate from, or drop existing EU standards, and to do so would involve an enormous administrative burden, as they would need to be replaced by alternative standards, which would need to be developed and audit protocols adopted etc. There is a risk, however, that in the longer term the UK could take a different view to the EU on pesticides or GM, for example.
4. The EU Budget. Currently the UK is a substantial nett contributor to the EU budget. A complete exit would result in a 5-10% reduction in the total EU budget (depending on the baseline year). Ireland is also a nett contributor, although to a lesser extent. The current CAP Pillar 1 and 2 budgets, as well as the Multi Annual Financial Framework are enshrined in law until 2019, and would require agreement in the Council and Parliament to change them. The risk for Ireland, however, is that it would be asked to contribute more to the total budget.

In parallel, the Agrifood sector must grapple with the threats and difficulties posed by the current period of extreme uncertainty, as well as the longer term market access threats.

Given that the short term difficulties such as the collapse in Sterling and the huge losses in equity and other markets have been well articulated, we should also try to understand the other issues with which we will need to grapple.

• The risk of UK industry interests attempting the renationalise the British food market, to the exclusion of Irish products.
• The strategic loss of Irish competitiveness in the UK market should Sterling settle in the 80p plus territory.
• The threat which British products could pose to us in international markets with a persistently weak sterling.
• The impact on the domestic market as shoppers go north, and cross-border retailers switch to supplies acquired via their NI or GB supply chains.
• The risk to UK consumer confidence of an economic.
• The unique exposure of Irish dairy businesses, particularly due to the all-island nature of the business.
• The implications for existing, or part-negotiated trade deals, where offers were made with respect to a 28 country market, which will be very much depleted post Brexit.
• The possible effect on the EU’s expected Greenhouse Gas reduction targets, which may be increased for individual member states, when the UK’s portion of the calculation is removed.
• The implications for implementation of the Water Quality Legislation, particularly with respect to river basin districts which are cross border.

The Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Deputy Michael Creed, has, wisely, convened an advisory Committee consisting of organisations representing the wider Food and Agri sector, and it held its first formal session last week. It was clear at that meeting that a lot of work has already been done by the Department in assessing the possible directions of the Brexit process, as well as identifying the myriad of downside consequences to the industries affected.

Notwithstanding the scale of the challenge facing us, we have some advantages; our Department is significantly more prepared for this process that the UK or other EU members, and the fact that our industry is quite well interconnected, both all industry partners and with the various state agencies. It is vital that Minster Creed ensures that we continue to work constructively to minimise the potential damage from the Brexit process.